Running With The Eagles
I’m still not bored with PFW’s statistical breakdowns. For those of you who find these sort of posts pedantic, fear not. I’ll move on after this week concludes. Until then, you’ll have to humor me. The math nerd in me is having too much fun combing through the numbers.
Today’s topic is fourth quarter rushing. Winning teams normally lean on the run game when holding a lead in the fourth quarter. This tried and true strategy has been utilized for decades and is considered the most sensible method to milk the clock and secure victories. Now, you have to have the lead for this to work, but in general terms, the teams with a high amount of final stanza rush attempts win more than they lose.
For example: The Titans had the best record in 2008 at 13-3. The cowardly Lions went 0-16. Here are their respective fourth quarter rushing stats:
TEN: 146 rushes, 637 yards, 4.4 apc, 9 TDs
DET: 65 rushes, 258 yards, 4.0 apc, 4 TDs
It’s easy to discern who won more games. Let’s take a gander at the NFC East teams:
PHI: 134 rushes, 428 yards, 3.2 apc, 3 TDs
NYG: 143 rushes, 720 yards, 5.0 apc, 4 TDs
DAL: 119 rushes, 485 yards, 4.1 apc, 2 TDs
WAS: 131 rushes, 543 yards, 4.1 apc, 4 TDs
Not surprisingly, our beloved Eagles were worst in the East. Just another example of how they defied the odds last season to eek into the playoffs. However, the 134 attempts is telling. The common assumption that Air Reid won’t run the ball late in games is disproved by these stats. Only nine fewer carries than Big Blue, and twelve less than the Titans is a bit eye-opening.
What about the Super Bowl participants? How did they fare in the fourth?
PIT: 114 rushes, 338 yards, 3.4 apc, 4 TDs
ARZ: 88 rushes, 284 yards, 3.2 apc, 1 TD
Not very impressive. The Steelers won six games by more than 17 points, but still only managed 114 attempts. Injuries had much to do with the low totals, but for a run-first team the results are still puzzling. The Cardinals poor numbers are indicative of a team ranked dead last in rushing. Despite the fact both teams improved their rushing totals in the post-season, I am still somewhat amazed they reached the Big Game.
What does all this extrapolation mean? Well, just because you don’t run the ball well, or choose to run not at all, doesn’t mean you can’t reach and win the Super Bowl. This post’s for you Andy Reid.
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it just goes to show you that stats really don’t mean shit? thats why romo is the dallas qb. it’s intangebles. hope he gets a few intangebles in december this year?
July 15th, 2009 at 4:52 pmyeah you’re right romo always has great stats and dallas still sucks. good thinking davedallasfan
July 15th, 2009 at 8:33 pmthats why i said that maybe he changes that in december this year? if romo wins a few games in december the last couple of years we’d be lookin at a whole nother situation concerning tony romo and whether dallas “sucks” or not, now would’nt we? thus my comment.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:57 amnow bula, lets not get mean here, cause really with all the success mcnabb has had over the years and all the stats and even playoff wins, what has philly gotten than dallas has’nt? they’ve lost a superbowl, and been on the wrong end of a few championship games. ok they’ve won in the playoffs and dallas has’nt, but they still don’t have the championship? thats what i mean, it really does’nt make any difference unless that trophy comes with it? thats not all mcnabbs fault you win and you loose as a team. well you can’t blame romo for all of dallas’ success or failures. it’s still the best team game in the world.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:04 ami hate to bring up the past but im pretty sure that a few of the dallas losses are mainly because of romo…a botch hold comes to mind
July 16th, 2009 at 2:52 pmtom, even with the botched hold, romo picked the ball up and ran it and came a half a yard away from puttin it in the end zone! the kids got a head for the game. vince lombardi once said, “one play does not win or lose a game. it’s everyone the leads up to that moment, is what determines winning or loosing.” we had numorious chances to win those games that romo apparently lost “singlehanded”. owens dropped a pass. baltimore scored on 2 long td runs in the 4th qtr. i don’t recall romo trying to tackle anyone. romo throws 5 ints in a game against buffalo, and still brings the cowboys back to win. on the botched field goal drive against seattle 2 romo passes were dropped that hit wrs right in the hands. come on i’m tired of romo takin the heat for everything. all i’m sayin is that philly has had alot of success under mcnabb. but there failures are all mcnabbs’ fault????????? no every eagle player has had a hand in the failures as well as the success. can not everyone see that same thing with romo and dallas????????
July 19th, 2009 at 5:44 pm