RECAP: Three Ways Philadelphia Eagles Can Lose to Dallas Cowboys on Sunday
Dec 14, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) makes a catch for a touchdown as Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Bradley Fletcher (24) defends in the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. The Cowboys defeated the Eagles 38-27. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Philadelphia Eagles hosted the Dallas Cowboys on prime time NBC at Lincoln Financial Field last Sunday night and lost 38-27. While the score reflects a close game due to a third quarter stretch where the Eagles scored a couple of touchdowns, the Cowboys dominated most of the game. Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly’s game plan looked almost identical to the one that worked during his team’s win at Dallas on Thanksgiving day; but a well rested Cowboys team looked prepared to take anything Kelly dished out. I wrote last week that there are three ways the Philadelphia Eagles can lose to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
I predicted that the Eagles’ red zone scoring problems, coughing the ball up too many times, and the less talked about but in my opinion perhaps their biggest problem, losing the time of possession battle every game would result in a loss for Philadelphia. So, I wanted to recap and look at each of the Eagles three biggest weaknesses and see how they fared against the Cowboys.
Stop the Big Play:
The Eagles are the NFL’s fifth worst in red zone scoring percentage; converting opportunities into touchdowns inside their opponents’ 20-yard lines only 44.68% of the time. What’s even more fascinating is that in my opinion, the best weapon the Eagles have in the red zone is tight end Zach Ertz, but the team replaces Ertz with the perceived better blocking tight end Brent Celek when they get into the red zone. It’s mind blowing, but Eagles head coach Chip Kelly continues to help out opponents by eliminating his best red zone weapon. What the Cowboys have to do is force the Eagles to beat them in the red zone by not giving up big plays. Philadelphia thrives on long scoring plays. Dallas must play smart, disciplined defense keeping the Eagles offensive players in front of them. If the Eagles do make it inside the Cowboys red zone, it’s very likely Philadelphia will only walk away with three points.
The Eagles were substantially improved against the Cowboys going a perfect three touchdowns on three red zone attempts. Philadelphia did not utilize their best red zone target, tight end Zach Ertz because they did not have to as all three scores were running plays twice by running back Chris Polk and once by RB Darren Sproles. The Eagles also managed to rattle off a number of big plays of 20+ yards, but unlike in previous games, none of those plays went for touchdowns.
Turnovers:
The Eagles are tied for fifth worst in the league with minus six turnovers. That’s six fewer turnovers the team has generated than given up to their opponents. Each turnover represents not only points Dallas can score against Philadelphia, but also potential points lost for the Eagles. In other words, a turnover represents a maximum potential swing of 16 points if the teams were to utilize the opportunity for a two-point conversion.
Each Eagles interception or fumble is a potentially lost touchdown and 2-point conversion plus a lost touchdown and 2-point conversion for the Cowboys. This is the reason teams that prevail in the turnover battle each game usually have a higher percentage of wins. It’s no secret that Philadelphia coughs up the football a lot, and no Eagle does it more than quarterback Mark Sanchez. In just six games Sanchez has thrown seven interceptions and fumbled six times. Dallas must make him pay for his mistakes in order to win.
Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez was in a gift-giving mood throwing two interceptions, veteran tight end Brent Celek lost one fumble, and the opening kickoff was muffed via miscommunication by wide receivers Josh Huff and Brad Smith. Sanchez now has nine interceptions and six fumbles in seven games that is the worst in the league. With the high octane Cowboys offense, Philadelphia could not afford to give Dallas extra chances to score, and the Eagles could not protect the ball. Sanchez quickly summarized his game for reporters after the game saying,
"“I didn’t play well enough to win and that’s why we lost.”"
Time Of Possession Per Game:
The Philadelphia Eagles possess the ball for only 28:14 every game, which is the fifth least (notice a pattern here) amount of time in the NFL. Let that stat sink in for a moment; Philadelphia gives their opponents more chances to score against them than 27 other teams in the league. Today’s National Football League certainly isn’t your Grandfather’s “three yards and a cloud of dust” NFL where a team must run the ball 90% of the time. However, winning the time of possession battle is proven as a consistent way of league success. Teams with high ToP/G percentages run the ball well, keep their defenses fresh, and prevent other teams from executing their offensive game plan.
It is my opinion that Chip Kelly’s hurry up spread offense is innovative and one that teams will be copying for years to come. Philadelphia has proven that they can generate substantial points in a short period of time game after game. However, as was the case with good defensive teams like San Francisco, Green Bay, Arizona, and Seattle, the winning recipe for Dallas calls for heavy rushing yards and dominating the time of possession.
By hurrying up the attack, I believe Kelly puts the Eagles in a position of weakness, and the Cowboys can exploit that weakness. Running back DeMarco Murray rushed for a season low 73 yards on Thanksgiving against the Eagles. If the Cowboys can get their running game going again it will stifle Philadelphia’s high scoring attack.
I believed Chip Kelly’s hurry up offense would hurt his team substantially going into the matchup, and the results proved my prediction true. Dallas possessed the ball an incredible 41:55 to Philadelphia’s 18:05. That time difference is astounding! During the entire first half, the Eagles possessed the ball a pathetic 8:34 allowing the Cowboys to jump out to a 21-0 early lead. When Philadelphia needed to slow the pace to give their defense a rest while simultaneously wearing out Dallas’ defense, they could not get it done. Kelly doggedly stuck with his no huddle shotgun formation that, in my opinion, ultimately cost his team the game. Kelly’s scheme struggled in losses against good defensive teams San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, and Green Bay as well. At some point Chip must recognize that there is value in slowing the pace, rushing the ball, and grinding out the clock on opponents.
Philadelphia did a good job of executing in the red zone, but that was the only one of the team’s three weakness that the Cowboys did not exploit. Turning the ball over four times and giving the quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Dez Bryant led Dallas offense an abundant amount of time to score against them was clearly a recipe for disaster for the Eagles. The hope that Eagles fans can hold on to is that their team faces the 3-11 Washington Redskins on Saturday and then the struggling 5-9 New York Giants on Sunday December 28th. On paper, the Eagles should win both games. But, if the team reverts back to their red zone struggles, continues to give opponents additional opportunities to score via turnovers, and refuses to switch to a clock grinding scheme at times when appropriate, then Philadelphia could find itself outside of the playoffs.