Philadelphia Eagles: Heisman Quarterbacks Aren’t Guaranteed

Dec 13, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota poses with the Heisman Trophy during a press conference at the New York Marriott Marquis after winning the Heisman Trophy. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Eagles: Heisman Quarterbacks Aren’t Guaranteed

“With the first pick of the 2015 NFL Draft….” will be the words we will soon be hearing, and to a very demonstrative subsection of Philadelphia Eagles fans, they hope the team announced is the Philadlephia Eagles and the name called is none other than Oregon quarterback and Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota.  While Mariota is getting lots of love from the press and NFL scouts now, he has fallen into “that” category.   Which is?  Heisman quarterbacks aren’t guaranteed to succeed in the NFL.

But each year, a new name.  Each year, a new team and fan base willing to believe that THEY are the exception.  Most recently, Robert Griffin III won the heisman trophy, and the Washington Redskins could not resist the opportunity to draft him.  To do so, they traded to the number two pick of the 2012 NFL draft, and surrendered the six pick of the same draft, plus a second round pick, plus the first round pick of 2013 and 2014.  The perspective of the trade was easily visible when the two teams faced off in 2014.  In that game, the Rams sent DL Michael Brockers, RB Zac Stacy, WR Stedman Bailey, LB Alec Ogletree, CB Janoris Jenkins and OL Greg Robinson out as captains.  

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In 2012, that trade was simply to jump the Redskins from the sixth pick to the second pick.  Some Eagles fans believe the impossible to be possible: that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be more than happy to trade back to the 20th pick of the 2015 draft.  But to jump that far, the Philadelphia Eagles would likely have to package the top draft selections for a minimum of four years.   Could it be worth it?  Sure.   If you spend the next three month’s rent on a lottery ticket with a small chance of winning, it could be worth it as well.

But risks are best when the reward is huge and the risk is small.  At the likely asking price to “move up”, the team should certainly consider that move a small reward for a huge risk and elect not to go there.

Draft value is real, and it’s what teams use to distinguish the fairness of a trade.   In the NFL Draft Value chart developed by Dallas Cowboy coach Jimmy Johnson, a top pick is 3000 pts.  The twentieth pick is worth 850 points.   Any team desperate enough to attempt moving up to the first pick needs to “make up” the difference by adding more picks or players until the value of both offers are nearly equivalent.   Then the trade happens between mutually interested parties.   It cannot happen if one team is NOT interested.   It cannot happen if the teams do not reach each other’s perceived value.  But Draft Value is also perceived.  What value a team assigns to a draft pick is somewhat subjective. If this were the Eagles initiative, Tampa Bay would like want even more value, or premium, to surrender their pick.  Premium is an additional amount paid by the interested team to persuade the other team to make the trade.
Looking back at the Redskins Rams trade.  Washington got the second pick of the draft: a 2,600 value.  They gave up: 1600, 520, 750(est.), 450(est.) for a 3320 value.  That 620 point difference (estimated) is the “premium” Washington was forced to pay to entice Saint Louis to trade.

So trading up is a pipe dream… a santa claus wish list of hoping to find the Mariota magically under the Eagles emblem on draft day.  But there is now hopes that the player will fall… all the way down past any numbers of teams that need quarterbacks… to the Eagles at 20 because current assessments are that Mariota is not “pro ready”.

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By all rights, Marcus Mariota may not be a plug and play quarterback.  But in 2014, no quarterback was believed to be an immediate plug and play guy.  That did not stop the Jacksonville Jaguars from selecting quarterback Blake Bortles with the third overall pick.

This year, due to last year’s lack of quarterback talent, even more teams are looking for a franchise quarterback.  In this world of “win now or else!” mentality, few coaches have the patience to pass on a quarterback and select a stronger player if there is a need for quarterback.   Simply stated, the NFL market for quarterback will not go away just because talent is not peaking the meter.

In 2013, the Philadelphia Eagles were thought to have a strong interest in DE Dion Jordan.  The Miami Dolphis traded ahead of the Eagles to select him.   In 2014, the Philadelphia Eagles were thought to have a strong interest in safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.  The Green Bay Packers, picking immediately before the Eagles, selected him.

Now that the Eagles sit at the 20th spot and the perception is that they would gladly draft quarterback Marcus Mariota, does anyone actually expect him to be available for us at that 20th spot?   Any team who has an interest will merely trade up to 19 to grab him.   Will the Eagles trade up to prevent that?  Perhaps, but any trade up will cost the Eagles more than they can afford this year.

The other piece to the equation is the amount of commitment and dedication it takes to earn wins in the NFL.   Talent can be enough in college.  Talent can get you a Heisman trophy.  But talent alone cannot win in the NFL.  It requires talent, dedication, scheme, and the right fit.   The best talents in the NFL are not only players who are confident in themselves, but are willing to go that extra mile to become better constantly.   It takes a certain amount of trust in a system which they’ve never seen before.  It takes that special combination of what a player has, what a coaching staff offers, and a resonance where the combination is greater than the sum of the parts.

The cost to select a Heisman quarterback is not felt on draft day.  It’s felt when the player arrives to the team’s training camp, already beginning to believe the hype that they will single handedly turn a team around.   Who needs friends when all stories written suggest that it’s the team who needs you?  The heavier cost paid by any Heisman quarterback is to forget everything about college: the stats, the write ups, the accolades, and any trophy.   They mean nothing to the NFL.   The player who can deliver in the NFL means everything.

The Heisman trophy is a distraction to the successful NFL career.   It takes the quarterback’s eye off the ultimate goal of NFL success and gives them a taste too soon.   Motivation springs from focus and disappointment.  Once a quarterback is given the Heisman, they are virtually annointed as the next “place All-Pro QB name here”.  Before  the work, the sacrifice, they get the accolades.  That is hard to ignore.

This is not to say that Marcus Mariota is not a quality NFL candidate.  He is.  It’s also not saying he won’t succeed at the NFL level.  He could.

What history shows is that the deck is stacked against him.  And it also shows that the Eagles, who pick at 20, would have to trade virtually all quality draft picks for many years to have the opportunity to take a chance on him.

High Risk.  Low Reward.

Unless events change drastically, don’t be disappointed if Chip and his favorite Duck are not reunited.