Chip Kelly’s No Huddle Offense Kills Philadelphia Eagles Season

Dec 28, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly before the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not one of these folks who are claiming no confidence in Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly’s overall scheme, I’ll leave that to the knee-jerk crowd, but I do have to ask if Kelly’s no huddle offense killed the Philadelphia Eagles playoff chances this season? Let me explain my question by analyzing each game individually.

Week 4 – San Francisco 49ers 26 Philadelphia Eagles 21:

The Eagles generated a whopping 21 yards rushing between running backs LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles. In case you forgot, McCoy ran for 1607 yards and had 539 yards receiving during the 2013 season en route to winning the NFL’s rushing title, and Sproles had 824 total yards from scrimmage. That’s almost 3,000 yards from scrimmage for just those two players. The 49ers were somewhat susceptible to the run giving up over 108 rushing yards per game to that point. I realize the Eagles offensive line was in a difficult spot trotting out the likes of left guard Matt Tobin and center David Molk replacing injured starting LG Evan Mathis and C Jason Kelce, but I sincerely believed the Eagles would be able to run the ball against San Fran.

But it was not to be, and the lack of running was the core of the problem with Kelly’s no huddle attack during Week 4, in my opinion. In addition to Philadelphia losing the rushing game 22 yards to San Francisco’s 218, the 49ers absolutely dominated the Eagles in time of possession. The 49ers controlled the ball 42:17 minutes to Philadelphia’s 17:43. San Francisco was on the attack over 24 minutes longer than the Eagles, and that time amounts to an eternity in NFL speak. The longest drive Philadelphia could maintain was 4:45 in the fourth quarter, and the second longest was 2:35 in the second quarter. In contrast, San Francisco had two drives of 4+ minutes in the third quarter, a time chewing 8:47 in the first quarter, and the eventual clock draining final field goal drive of 6:05 in the fourth quarter.

Against a great defensive team like San Francisco, the winning recipe calls for heavy rushing yards and winning time of possession. By hurrying up the attack and not executing, I believe Chip Kelly put his team in a position of weakness. The 49ers are a fast defense that plays quick, and they stayed with the Eagles the entire game. What the Eagles needed to do was slow down San Francisco by grinding out long scoring drives. By going no huddle, the Eagles ultimately wore out their own defense and gave the ball back to the 49ers with more time to attack.

Week 8 – Arizona Cardinals 24 Philadelphia Eagles 20:

The Eagles lost 24-20 to the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. It was a tight game as it took a late fourth quarter Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer strike to wide receiver John Brown for 75 yards and the touchdown helping Phoenix pull out the victory. The Eagles were still 5-2 and held the second place spot in the NFC East, so one late game loss to a 6-1 Cardinals team did not, in my mind, indicate a disaster was at hand. However, the Philadelphia Eagles were close to the bottom of the league in three alarming stats, including Red Zone scoring percentage, Time of Possession Per Game, and Turnovers. Kelly’s hurry up offense highlighted those weaknesses by giving Eagles’ opponents with great defenses more opportunities to score.

Week 11 – Green Bay Packers 53 Philadelphia Eagles 20:

Once again the Eagles found themselves up against an outstanding Green Bay defense in Week 11. Philadelphia was dominated in turnovers 4-0, time of possession 32:42 Packers vs. 27:18 Eagles, and they couldn’t get running back LeSean McCoy going who had only 88 yards rushing and no touchdowns. Kelly’s no huddle spread offense played right into the hands of Green Bay which is a team that thrives on scoring opportunities for their high octane offense led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers. By giving the ball back to Rodgers as quickly as possible through both play calling and turnovers, the Eagles practically guaranteed their own loss.

Week 14 – Seattle Seahawks 24 Philadelphia Eagles 14:

By week 14, the Seahawk’s “Legion of Boom” were at the top of every major defensive category in the NFL. They stifled their opponent’s pass and crushed their run. At that point in the season, Seattle was giving up a mere 18.4 points per game and have a tied for third best +9 turnover differential compared to Philadelphia’s tied for fourth worst -6. Seattle will also get after the quarter back boasting the 7th most sacks in the league with 31 compared to Philadelphia’s 28th ranked 18 total sacks.

The Eagles Achilles heel in all three losses against San Francisco, Arizona, and Green Bay was the well documented red zone scoring problems, coughing the ball up too many times, and of course the less talked about but in my opinion perhaps the biggest problem, losing the time of possession battle every game. The Seahawks held the ball 41:56 to the Eagles mind-numbingly low 18:04.

When Philadelphia was scoring at will against overmatched defenses, they hide the red zone, turnover, and time of possession issues. But, a team like Seattle highlighted and exploits those weaknesses.

Week 15 – Dallas Cowboys 38 Philadelphia Eagles 27:

The Eagles hosted the Cowboys on prime time NBC at Lincoln Financial Field for Sunday night football and lost 38-27. While the score reflected a close game due to a third quarter stretch where the Eagles scored a couple of touchdowns, the Cowboys dominated most of the game. Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly’s game plan looked almost identical to the one that worked during his team’s win at Dallas on Thanksgiving day; but a well rested Cowboys team looked prepared to take anything Kelly dished out. I predicted the week before that there were three ways the Philadelphia Eagles could lose to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

I said that the Eagles’ red zone scoring problems, coughing the ball up too many times, and once again losing the time of possession battle would result in a loss for Philadelphia. The Eagles were destroyed by the Cowboys in time of possession (Dallas 41:55 – Philadelphia 18:05) and also lost the turnover battle giving up four. However, the Eagles were a perfect three of three on Red Zone scoring chances, but the extra opportunities for Dallas’ offense proved too much for Philadelphia to overcome in what ended up being the NFC East title game.

Week 16 – Washington Redskins 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24:

Through the week 16 loss to Washington, Philadelphia quarterback Mark Sanchez gave up thirteen turnovers in just seven games. While turnovers hurt the Eagles once again, this was the first game in which they tied their opponent’s turnovers (2-2) in a loss while also winning time of possession. What did the Eagles in against Washington were missed field goals, penalties, and former wide receiver DeSean Jackson’s 126 yards of “payback.” The loss is the lone anomaly for the Eagles where they won time of possession and tied turnovers but still lost.

I realize that it is easy for anyone to sit back at the end of the season and pick apart a team that did not make the playoffs. But, here’s the interesting thing. I correctly predicted the Eagles would lose every single game where they lost their three areas of weakness. I’m on record each week. Go check me…I’ll wait. One can say, “yeah, but you were just picking trends,” to which I say “of course I was!” In my experience, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Whenever Kelly’s Eagles faced a strong defensive team it was almost a guarantee that they were going to give up the ball, lose time of possession, and not finish with touchdowns in the red zone.

Now that you are armed with this information, I put it to you, Eagles Nation, did Chip Kelly’s dogged determination to run his no-huddle spread offense against the best defenses in the league predestine Philadelphia to miss the playoffs? If so, the next question you should ask yourself is, if given that Chip’s scheme has glaring and obvious flaws, will he change it up next season?