Eagles Analysis: 8 Predictions for the 2015 Season
By Pat Roach
Aug 22, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (7) celebrates a touchdown with center Jason Kelce (62) against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Sam Bradford will post a ridiculously efficient 358/520 (69%) 4,600/36/10 line
I’ll take a lot of heat for this projection, but it’s not as far fetched as one might think. Allow me to break it down and explain:
Under Chip Kelly, quarterbacks have averaged 4,502.5 yards, 29.5 TDs, and 15.5 INTs per season (so these numbers wouldn’t be outrageous given the norm). However, there are a ton of variables that give these raw figures context. In 2013, Kelly’s offense was new to the NFL. Defensive coordinators were simply not equipped to combat the blinding pace and various nuances of Chip Kelly’s attack. So, as a result, Kelly enjoyed an advantage that he will never again be afforded during his NFL tenure. Not only that, Nick Foles played out of his mind in that first season, posting a ridiculously irreplicable 27/2 line that has been the talk of the early offseason 2 years running.
Now, on the flip side, there were other factors at work during Kelly’s inaugural season. Michael Vick‘s early presence, Matt Barkley‘s appearance against the Giants, and Foles’ odd (concussed?) performance against the Cowboys arguably dulled the overall team passing numbers for the season.
Eagles
The 2014 season presented none of the same luxuries or successes that were found during the previous year. Nick Foles, while never the hyper-efficient superb decision-maker that his 2013 line suggested, inexplicably regressed as a fundamental passer; backpedaling out of the stadium, holding the ball for an eternity, dropping his eyes, and demonstrating none of the poise and strength in the pocket that he showcased the year prior. Mark Sanchez wasn’t much better, playing erratically and refusing to test defenses outside the numbers. Meanwhile, the rushing attack headed by the now departed LeSean McCoy stalled, as McCoy appeared a shell of himself for the majority of the season.
The conclusion that I came to in reviewing all of the information presented to me through Kelly’s first 2 seasons brought me to a simple, logical conclusion: Both years are an aberration. One for the surprise element and uncharacteristically stellar play of Nick Foles, and the other for the utterly atrocious QB play, and lack of a consistent rushing attack. The true mean for the Chip Kelly quarterback is a complete unknown at this point, but it likely falls somewhere in the middle of his first 2 seasons.
With Sam Bradford now in tow, however, one thing is certain; the QB play will be better than in previous years. Bradford is far and away the most talented passer that Chip Kelly has had at his disposal. I looked at Bradford at length in June, and came away incredibly impressed with his mechanics. The foundation that Bradford’s mechanics provide builds the infrastructure for repetitive accuracy, one of Kelly’s most valued attributes in a passer. Couple the consistency and proficiency in Bradford’s mechanics with good decision making, and you get a quarterback that can continually make good reads and put the ball where it needs to be. You got a small taste of this during Bradford’s 15 preseason snaps.
Beyond Bradford’s mechanical consistencies, is the supporting cast that he has been provided; from the incredible stable of backs to the bevy of pass-catching weapons that the Eagles now employ. The presence of a strong running game will be a boon to Bradford, and take the pressure off him to be the centerpiece of the Eagles attack. Bradford will be allowed to lean heavily on DeMarco Murray and Co. at times, a unit that will bring added dimension to the offense, and Bradford’s game. Bradford will be an elite point guard; a passer who has the ability to test the defense with his impressive arm talent, but will be tasked with simply distributing well-timed and accurate passes to his weapons, more often than not.
If you want to find an accurate portrayal of Bradford’s role, it should be somewhat akin to that of Tony Romo‘s this past season. Romo leaned heavily on the Cowboys newfound commitment to the run, finding passing lanes with ease, distributing the ball, and delivering well-timed strikes to Dez Bryant. Romo used the running game as the ultimate crutch, and as a bonus, was kept relatively healthy, absorbing less sacks and hits than in recent years (average of 7 less sacks than the previous 3 years). Romo enjoyed the most productive year of his career, compiling a 3,705 34/9 line while missing roughly 1.5 games. The raw numbers aren’t gargantuan, but Romo didn’t enjoy the volume that other quarterbacks did. Romo did, however, have an absurdly efficient campaign, completing just a shade under 70% of his passes and amassing a 113.2 passer rating, good for best in the league.
Sam Bradford will be in an attack that is –philosophically speaking– not dissimilar to the Cowboys 2014 offense. The commitment to the run should put a cap on the volume that Bradford will see (the projected 32.5 attempts per game would have been 22nd in ’14), but his skill set and supply of offensive weaponry in a prolific system should place him among the NFL’s most efficient passers.
Next: Sam Bradford will win Comeback Player of the Year