What are the chances Carson Wentz becomes the first $200 million quarterback?

Will Carson Wentz see the NFL’s first $200 million contract?

The Philadelphia Eagles front office could be getting very nervous nowadays. First things first, let me just say that thankfully, the Eagles won the Super Bowl just a season ago with tons of short-term, low-risk deals on the books. Now, the Eagles need to figure out how to draft some franchise-changing talent to throw on a team that is ready to win now. The free agency game was fun in previous years, but now the Eagles have to focus on spending money on their own.

By their own, I mean the quarterback, Carson Wentz. With the quarterback’s market increasing each and every season, thanks to inflated numbers by desperate teams, the price tag for franchise signal callers continues to rise. And as the Eagles begin to run out of time with Carson Wentz’s cheaper rookie deal, they must start plotting his numbers for the future. Could Wentz end up being the NFL’s first $200 million quarterback? Apparently so.

Recently, Bleacher Report’s Mike Tanier put together a piece that went over some of the NFL’s younger passers that are approaching contract years. For Wentz, he will play out his final season in 2019, with an option for 2020 if the Eagles want to go there. It’s clear that the Eagles view Wentz as the answer for the franchise, but just how much will he cost to keep him around, and away from the free agency market that would pay him generously regardless?

What are the chances Wentz gets $200 million?

"“The Eagles will need to prorate bonuses for cap reasons, which means extra contract years. So a five-year deal with a $40 million average (with lots of cash stashed in the post-CBA future) is a real possibility. When playing at his peak, Wentz is more like Mahomes than Goff or Prescott, making him more likely to pay dividends on a whopping deal than to leave the Eagles wishing they could afford someone to protect him or catch his passes. Wentz also has the most troubling health history of the players on this list. Injury guarantees will be a major component of his next contract.”"

According to Tanier, Wentz is tied for the highest chance of being the first $200 million quarterback at 20-percent. The other quarterback in that vicinity is Kansas City Chiefs’ MVP Patrick Mahomes. Other quarterbacks who have opportunities would be Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Russell Wilson, but those guys might not reach that point before Wentz or Mahomes.

Is it all worth it?

Is Wentz worth $40 million a year? If healthy, Wentz is as good as any top-tier quarterback in the league (see 2017 for reference). Keywords here are “if healthy” though. Wentz has been in the NFL for three seasons and has only managed to finish one full year. 2017 ended early due to a torn ACL, and 2018 ended because of a back injury.

Even with 2018 being a disappointing year for Wentz, he still wasn’t as bad as everybody made him out to be. Unfortunately, in a ‘what have you done for me lately’ market, Wentz’s struggles have been overblown. In 11 games, Wentz managed to throw for over 3,000 yards, 21 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. His QBR was a 64.3, which ranked 12th overall. At this point, it’s no secret that Carson Wentz’s health is his biggest concern.

Unfortunatley, the Eagles financial situation could make them extend Wentz before he has his fourth and final ‘prove-it’ season. We’re not sure how or when the Eagles are going to approach the extension, and who knows if Wentz will even demand as much as the market could offer him. But if his representation sticks to the script, there’s a good chance that Wentz becomes one of, if not, the first $200 million man in the NFL.