Are the Philadelphia Eagles Week 12’s most popular underdog?

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 17: Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts during the first half against the New England Patriots at Lincoln Financial Field on November 17, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 17: Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts during the first half against the New England Patriots at Lincoln Financial Field on November 17, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

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Seahawks at Eagles Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Eagles -1
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening.

The Seattle Seahawks are the most popular underdogs of Week 12, attracting more than 75% of public betting tickets and 65% of the money as of Thursday evening, moving from -3 to -1. But is now the time to actually fade them against the Philadelphia Eagles?

Our experts analyze every angle of Sunday’s matchup from a betting perspective, featuring staff picks and Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Seahawks-Eagles Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Seahawks

Eagles’ pass-catchers remain the biggest question marks. Nelson Agholor (knee) hasn’t practiced, but he’s hoping to on Friday. Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) has been able to get in limited sessions and it sounds like he has a shot to play.

Jordan Howard (shoulder) has been limited all week, but he still hasn’t been cleared for contact. He could go either way. We’ll have a better idea on all of these players come Friday.

Tyler Lockett (leg) got banged up in their last game, but he’s been getting in limited practice and the Seahawks seem optimistic that he’ll be ready to play this week. However, they could potentially be down their best defender as Jadeveon Clowney (knee/hip) hasn’t been able to practice at all this week. Clowney leads the Seahawks in quarterback pressures, sacks, hurries and hits, so it would be good news for Carson Wentz if Clowney is unable to suit up. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Eagles DT Fletcher Cox vs. Seahawks C Joey Hunt

The loss of starting center Justin Britt to a season-ending ACL tear will hurt in this matchup. Whereas Britt ranked a respectable 18th among centers in Pro Football Focus’ grades, his replacement, Hunt, is way down at 55th. Despite having played just the eighth-most snaps among Seattle offensive linemen this season, Hunt is already tied for second-most sacks allowed on the team with three.

Cox, meanwhile, has been his usual superb self. The four-time Pro Bowler and 2018 first-team All-Pro currently ranks fifth among interior defenders in PFF’s grades, and his 42 total pressures are third among players at the position, behind only Aaron Donald and Calais Campbell.

The one positive in regard to the situation is that Russell Wilson is no stranger to pressure. He’s been the third-most pressured quarterback this season (41.8% of dropbacks) and delivered the most passing yards (1,035) and touchdowns (nine) while under duress.

Twenty five quarterbacks have thrown at least two interceptions while under pressure this season, and Wilson is not one of them.

Despite being the trendiest underdog of the week with an 80% ticket backing as of this writing (see live public betting data here), this cross-country trip shouldn’t be viewed as a gimme for Seattle. But Wilson’s uncanny ability to beat pressure is a big reason he’s 16-6-2 all time as a road underdog, per our Bet Labs data.

That said, when you couple the fact that the Eagles play stout run defense (seventh in Football Outsiders’ DVOA) and lack explosiveness on offense with their likely defensive domination on the interior, there’s a case to be made that the under is a better play than either side against the spread. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Eagles -2
  • Projected Total: 48.5

I’ve mentioned how there’s value in getting ahead of public perception. The Falcons over the past two weeks are a great example; the Eagles are poised to be that team this week.

Philly sports a +2.6 edge over Seattle in Pythagorean win differential — a clear sign that the public is likely to overrate the Seahawks and underrate the Eagles. Betting behavior has aligned with this theory given 80% of the tickets have been printed for Seattle. It’s sent the line down from Eagles -3 all the way down to -1.

We have to wonder if at some point the Seahawks will become slight favorites, and it’s worth waiting to see if that does happen. I’m also waiting on the status of Jeffery: If he’s able to return, it would make the Eagles one of my favorite plays of the week. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Eagles -1

This is probably my favorite buy-low, sell-high spot of the weekend.

I’ve been itching to fade the Seahawks since their win at San Francisco, which was their first good win all season. Yes, Wilson has been brilliant. But the rest of the team? Not so much.

Let’s dig a little deeper into their 8-2 record.

They have two overtime wins. The rest of the NFL combined? 2!

Two of their other wins came against backup quarterbacks. And the rest came against the three AFC North teams outside of Baltimore — all of which they could’ve easily lost.

They also have only a net +12 point differential at the end of regulation. That means they’ve outscored their opponents by a total of 12 in regulation and nine in overtime!

And finally, while they did have a blowout win over Arizona, the other seven all came by one possession. A few different bounces of the oblong ball or a made field goal by Greg Zuerlein, and the Seahawks are potentially sitting with a record of 5-5 — the same as the Eagles.

The Seahawks have holes in the trenches and secondary. Even their special teams have been a disaster. Wilson can’t mask those deficiencies forever.

Look, the Eagles certainly have their flaws. But their secondary has started to figure it, which helps a ton. And while the offense is very limited in explosiveness, they should have some success on the ground against a Seattle defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry (22nd in the NFL). I think Wentz can also find his two tight ends down the seam for some big plays through the air against a defense that has also struggled to defend tight ends this season.

In a matchup of two teams that lean heavily on the run — both rank in the top-six in rush attempts per game with similar yards per carry marks — the Eagles’ run defense has a significant advantage. They’re allowing only 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks sixth in the league. And I expect the Eagles to own the trenches on both sides of the ball, which will ultimately be the difference.

Don’t completely write off the Eagles just yet. Remember they were 4-6 last season before eventually making the playoffs. I had to play the Birds when a -1 popped in the market and would play them at anything under 3.