3 cures for an ailing Philadelphia Eagles run defense

The Philadelphia Eagles lost on Monday night, and with Avonte Maddox, Marlon Tuipulotu, and Dallas Goedert on injured reserve, there is less margin for error. Jonathan Gannon’s likely gameplan and the first ten runs defensed during the first two drives versus the Washington Commanders, the data suggests the Eagles can adapt, pivot, and shut down a dangerous Indianapolis Colts running game.

The Philadelphia Eagles lost on Monday night due to odd penalties, odd turnovers, and an inability to control the clock with their offense. Giving up about 3.1 yards per carry is an issue, but a bigger issue is the game flow with the Eagles only creating one tackle for loss and only getting one sack.

While it’s unclear the impact of the recent acquisition of Linval Joseph, here is a plan of what the Eagles should do to solidify their run defense versus Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. Some of this information is counter-intuitive, but here is the data.

The Philadelphia Eagles need a tighter rotation on running down and distance

Again the Eagles allowed 3.1 yards per carry on Monday Night Football. With Marlon Tuipulotu being added to the injured reserve, Philadelphia Eagles only field one linebacker and four defensive linemen who have allowed fewer yards when they’re involved in the tackle.

Haason Reddick – often the left edge player for the Eagles – has 2.26 yards per carry allowed (YPCA) and has a 90 percent usage rate in the sample game script. 77 percent of his plays led to above-average runs (AAR) and that is one of the worst percentages.

Fletcher Cox – often the left defensive tackle for the Eagles – has a 2.3 YPCA with a 40 percent usage rate and an 80% chance to give up an AAR.

Javon Hargrave – often the nose guard in the Eagles’ 50 fronts – has 2.5 YPCA with a 50 percent usage rate and a 60% chance to give up an AAR.

Milton Williams – often the right defensive tackle for the Eagles – has 3.125 YPCA with a 60 percent usage rate and coin flip (50/50) odds to give up an AAR.

Finally, Josh Sweat – often the right edge player for the Eagles – is not only a great pass rusher but also is a key part of the team’s run fits with a 2.625 YPCA and a 60 percent usage rate. He has a snake-eyes chance (one in six) of allowing an AAR, which is the best odds of anyone on the line.

The Philadelphia Eagles should put fewer men in the box to defend the run

As counter-intuitive as it may sound, the 51 Penny front and 42 Nickel front outperformed the 52 Tite front based on the sample data. Both the 51 Penny front and the 42 Nickel front have six men in the box. The 52 Tite front has seven men in the box. Most people believe that it’s better to put more people in the box in order to defend the run. While this is true in theory, the data tells a different story.

The 51 Penny front allowed 3.0 yards per carry and had a 10 percent usage rate within the sample. There were no above-average runs recorded against this defensive front.

The 42 Nickel front allowed 2.0 yards per carry and had a 60 percent usage rate. 50 percent of runs against this front led to AARs.

The 52 Tite front allowed 4.0 yards per carry and had a 50 percent usage rate. 40 percent of runs against this front led to AARs.

Not only does freeing up an extra man from the box aid the run defense, but he can also be used in coverage to help in pass defense.

Josiah Scott hasn’t looked that great in the slot but there are other corners and other safeties that could play in a nickel or big nickel package. Zech McPhearson and K’Von Wallace are both good tacklers and run defense is a core responsibility for slot corners.

The Philadelphia Eagles need to use more two-high, off-coverage, and inside leverage to help the run fits

While press coverage is great to help the pass rush get to the quarterback, it has hurt the Eagles’ run defense as recently as Week 10.

When the Eagles employed press coverage on Monday night, they gave up 6.0 yards per carry. With a 50 percent usage rate, every snap in this coverage shell led to an above-average run.

In off-coverage, conversely, the Eagles gave up 1.25 yards per carry. With a 40 percent usage rate, none of the snaps in that coverage shell led to an above-average run.

With the Eagles’ corners in inside leverage, meaning they were lined up against the inside shoulders of the receivers, they gave up 4.0 yards per carry. With a 40 percent usage rate, half of the snaps ran against this leverage led to above-average runs.

When the Eagles’ corners are in outside leverage, meaning they are lined up against the outside shoulders of the receivers, Philadelphia gave up 4.5 yards per carry. With a 40 percent usage rate, three-quarters of the snaps that were run against this leverage led to above-average runs.

Using a single-high defense – often presented as a middle-of-the-field closed defense (MOFC) pre-snap – actually harms the run defense in the same way that having an extra man in the box does. The disguise and the versatility of a six-in-the-box split safety defense – Coach Jonathan Gannon’s pride and joy – make run blocking more difficult for an offense.

When the Philadelphia Eagles are in a single-high defense pre-snap (MOFC), the Eagles surrendered 4.5 yards per carry. With a 60 percent usage rate, there is a two-out-of-three chance that a run against this shell will lead to an above-average run.

When the Eagles are in a two-high defense pre-snap (MOFO), the Eagles surrendered 2.8 yards per carry. With a 40 percent usage rate, there is a one in four chance a run against this shell will lead to an above-average run.

It turns out, at least based on a limited data set with a small sample size from a fluky game, that the best way to defend the run is to defend the pass.