Eagles vs. Cowboys best bet: Line Move to Dallas Offers Betting Value for Philly

Boston Scott #35, Gardner Minshew #10, Philadelphia Eagles (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Boston Scott #35, Gardner Minshew #10, Philadelphia Eagles (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

It’s barely been a few days since the Eagles collected their league-leading 13th victory of the season in Chicago on Sunday, and there’s already been enough headlines to last a full week.

Philadelphia opened up as short 1.5-point road underdogs heading into their Week 16 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys with a shot to clinch both the division and potentially lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but even before Eagles reporters and national NFL insiders had a chance to report on Jalen Hurts’ separated shoulder injury, the betting lines went through a wild swing, driving not only Hurts’ MVP odds all the way down from -150 to as long as +700 at one point, to as much as a 5-point swing towards the Cowboys at -6.5 before the market corrected itself.

Dallas enters off a heartbreaking overtime loss on the road to the Jacksonville Jaguars on a tipped pick-six from Dak Prescott; failing to cover for the second straight game after covering in six of their previous seven.

After a back-and-forth first few days, here’s where the latest odds currently stand, and then we’ll dive into our Eagles vs. Cowboys best bet to consider.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread and Total

Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Trends for Week 16


  • This is the first time all season that the Eagles will almost assuredly close as an underdog. The last time they were dogs also came against the Cowboys back in Week 18 of the 2021-22 season, when they rested their starters and lost 51-26, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread.


  • After starting his career 5-0 SU, and 3-1-1 ATS in the month of December, Dak Prescott has lost two straight ATS, bringing his overall record to 6-1 SU, and 3-3-1 ATS. However, via Covers, the Cowboys have gone 6-1 ATS over their last 7 games following a ATS loss, with the one loss, of course, being last week to the Jaguars.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick

Regardless of whether Hurts plays, he’s done enough in my eyes to enter Week 16 as the rightful favorite to win NFL MVP. However, that doesn’t do much in the way of helping us determine the right side in this matchup.

To be perfectly transparent, I bet on the Cowboys when the line first moved to -2.5, as the reports coming out at the time were that Hurts could potentially miss the remainder of the regular season at a minimum, and wanted to get the line before it hit a key number of 3. Now that it’s as high as +6 against the Eagles, I think it’s as good of a time as any to take the road team.

The Cowboys look incredibly shaky of late, failing to cover in their last two games as sizable favorites. Their once-dominant defense has also been picked apart. They struggle mightily to stop the run, ranking 22nd in yards/rush, and 24th in rushing yards/game. They’ve also given up a bunch of points; allowing more than 27 PPG over their past three games, and just under 380 opponent yards-per game.

Not having Hurts’ abilities to impact a massive rushing advantage isn’t good for business, but the Eagles still have the best offensive line in the NFL based off PFF’s rankings, and can still dictate a game plan that takes advantage of it vs. the biggest weakness of the Cowboys.

It’s obviously a massive difference going from Hurts to Minshew, but is it a 4 to 5-point swing as several sportsbooks suggest? I’m not so sure.

I love this line at +6, and would feel decent about it down to +5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.