NFL playoff bracket if season ended today: Familiar faces and new threats rise

As we wrap up Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, it's never too early to start speculating about contenders and monitoring the current playoff picture. Though the postseason is still months away, teams are already positioning themselves for a spot in the 14-team field. We might even be able to state that a few Super Bowl contenders are beginning to emerge.

Here’s how the current playoff probabilities look for each conference. We also offer a peek at the teams with the strongest odds to take it to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

Familiar faces lead the pack in the AFC.

The AFC has been nothing short of competitive, but a few teams are standing out with strong playoff probabilities. The Kansas City Chiefs are clear frontrunners, holding an over 99% chance of making the postseason, and they’re highly backed to appear in the Super Bowl for the third straight year.

Close behind, the Baltimore Ravens boast a 90.9% playoff probability following a thrilling overtime win against the Cincinnati Bengals. Other notable teams include the Houston Texans, who are building an impressive season with a 4-1 record and an 90.9% chance of clinching a postseason berth, along with the Buffalo Bills at 87.5%.

These teams also have the highest odds of winning their divisions, giving them a leg up in securing home-field advantage.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the AFC standings, teams like the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots face uphill battles with only 5% and 2% playoff chances, respectively. Both franchises will need to rally quickly if they hope to reverse their early season woes.

As of 12:30 pm EST, our friends at DraftKings offer odds on all teams to make the playoffs:

Unlikely preseason contenders shine bright in the NFC.

In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings lead the charge with a 90.9% probability of reaching the postseason, thanks to their flawless 5-0 start. Detroit is nipping at their heels with a 72.6% chance to make the playoffs, ensuring a heated NFC North race.

One of the biggest surprises of the season is the Washington Commanders, who hold the third-highest playoff odds in the NFC at 60%. In the NFC East battle, they have a 34.5% chance to secure the division, keeping pace with other favorable contenders.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints, despite their Week 5 loss to Kansas City, hold a modest 40% chance of making it to the postseason.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Carolina Panthers’ slim 6.7% playoff odds paint a tough picture for their fans, as they continue to struggle in the NFC South.

Lombardi Trophy favorites

When it comes to Super Bowl aspirations, the Chiefs continue to lead the way with an 18.2% chance of winning it all, while the Vikings are atop the NFC with an 8.3% chance to claim their first championship in nearly 50 years.

Another surprise contender is the Texans, who have a 7.7% chance of taking home the big game. And don’t sleep on the Commanders — this NFC dark horse holds a 3.2% chance to win it all, while they will face some fierce competition moving forward.

Though the playoff picture remains fluid, Week 5 has given us a clearer glimpse of which teams are on track for postseason success. The road to Super Bowl LIX is wide open, with a mix of familiar faces and surprise contenders fighting for a chance at glory.

Read more Eagles news . . .