Why the Eagles must ignore any temptation to pursue Derrick Henry in free agency

It’s not a surprise to anyone that the Philadelphia Eagles could be shopping around for running backs this offseason. D’Andre Swift was only on a one-year deal in 2023, and while it would be awesome for him to keep playing in his hometown, that may not happen. 

It’s a particularly dicey situation given the other running backs that are scheduled to become free agents. There are big names in that pool of players; Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Gus Edwards, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, and Derrick Henry.

The buzz around Henry is the most contentious and predominant. There's buzz surrounding the idea of him becoming an Eagle, but here's some advice.

Sit back and take a deep breath before you dive headfirst into your support of Derrick Henry joining the Eagles.

Derrick Henry has been phenomenal for the VAST majority of his career. No one is going to argue anything differently. Hell, his first name is Derrick, which is a name that can be spelled a hundred ways. His career has made the now-default spelling D-E-R-R-I-C-K. That’s wild in itself.

It’s not about what he has done. It’s about where he is now. Now, we have to look at the pros and cons of signing the future NFL Hall of Famer, because buddy, it’s not all roses, sunshine, and sugar. 

It’s about what he has left. For most of his career, he’s had a disgustingly huge number of carries each season. Even in the 2021 season, when he only played in eight games, he had 219 carries. That’s bonkers. 

Every year, we would all say, ‘Human beings can’t go on carrying a ball that many times, but I guess Derrick Henry isn’t a normal human.’ We were all correct, but that time is coming to an end. 

After his foot injury in 2021, the Tennessee Titans' usage never decreased. In 2022, he amassed 349 carries, and in 2023, he toted the rock 280 times. If we were talking about any other player in the NFL, that number would make you violently ill, but we're talking about King Henry. He's examined differently.

The problem is that, even though those numbers stayed crazy high, his production went down. When he was at his peak, from 2018 to 2020, he averaged 4.9, 5.1, and 5.4 yards per carry. Then, from 2021 until 2022, he dropped to 4.3, 4.4, and 4.2 yards per carry. Yeah, that’s still great, but for Derrick Henry, it feels relatively pedestrian. 

Then you have to think about how Henry got his yards. It always felt like he embodied the spirit of a running game, ‘He gets stronger as the game goes on,’ and that was essentially correct. Prior to his injury, he averaged 4.4 yards per carry in the first half and 4.9 YPC in the second half. After the injury, we’re looking at 4.8 YPC in the first half and 3.8 YPC in the second half.

This is what those numbers look like in a table if you’re a visual person. They've been divided into what he did before and after his injury. Thank ProFootballReference.com.

The point is that Derrick Henry isn’t what he used to be, which makes sense. He’s 30 years old and has carried the ball over 2000 times.

He’s had incredible tread on his tires, but other names are available in free agency (and, we hope D’Andre Swift sticks around. Sure, there's a chance that Derrick Henry can continue living up to his well-deserved reputation, but this is his eighth season in the NFL. That is a gamble that the Eagles can ill afford to make.

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