Updated NFL playoff picture: Key narratives heading into Week 16

The Eagles are now eyeing the NFC’s No.1 seed— Who else is in, who’s out, and which teams still have a shot at postseason glory?

Super Bowl LIX Signage
Super Bowl LIX Signage | Aaron M. Sprecher/GettyImages

The 2024 NFL season has reached its most thrilling phase: the battle for playoff positioning. Seven teams, including the Philadelphia Eagles, have punched their tickets while eight have now been officially eliminated from contention.

However, many postseason campaigns are still alive, and teams are jockeying for a spot in the playoffs. Super Bowl LIX is sizing up to be a thrilling showdown of organizations who can survive the playoff pressure.

From teams barely hanging on to their wild-card dreams to division clashes that could come down to Week 18, this is crunch time in the NFL. As multiple teams have clinched their berths already, others are clinging to hope—needing a mix of wins, losses, and some serious holiday miracles.

AFC

The Indianapolis Colts need a perfect finish and help from the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Colts’ slim playoff hopes rely entirely on a wild-card berth after Houston clinched the AFC South. At 6-8, Indianapolis must win its final three games to finish 9-8 while hoping the Chargers go 1-2.

In that case, the Colts’ superior conference record (7-5) would give them the tiebreaker. With little room for error, Indy’s postseason path is narrow but still achievable. The Colts must also clean up turnovers, as mistakes have been costly in recent weeks.

The Miami Dolphins must win out and watch the league's scoreboard closely.

Like the Colts, the Dolphins (6-8) need a wild-card miracle. Miami must win its remaining games, including tough road trips to Cleveland and New York, to have a shot at 9-8.

They also need the Colts to lose at least one game and either the Chargers to go 1-2 or the Broncos to lose out. Miami’s inconsistent defense has made this path more difficult, but their offense remains capable of keeping hopes alive. Moving forward, every snap is critical for their playoff chances.

The Cincinnati Bengals face a tougher path due to conference tiebreakers.

Cincinnati, sitting at 6-8, has an even steeper climb into the playoffs. The Bengals must win out and hope both the Colts and Dolphins lose at least one game to stay alive. Additionally, they require either the Chargers or Broncos to lose out to sneak into the final wild-card spot.

Unfortunately, Cincinnati’s poor 3-6 AFC record makes tiebreaker scenarios less favorable. The Bengals’ margin for error is razor-thin, and their defense must step up to support Joe Burrow’s late-season push.

NFC

The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest playoff path with division and wild-card hopes.

The Falcons (7-7) are one game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South but hold the critical head-to-head tiebreaker. If Atlanta wins out and the Buccaneers lose at least one game, the Falcons will clinch the division title.

Even if they fall short in the South, Atlanta remains alive for a wild-card berth. For that, they’ll need the Washington Commanders and Seahawks to finish 1-2 down the stretch. With Kirk Cousins leading the way, Atlanta’s balanced offense gives them a legitimate shot at a playoff spot.

The Arizona Cardinals must thread the needle in the NFC West race.

The Cardinals (7-7) can win the NFC West if both the Rams and Seahawks finish 1-2 and Arizona wins out. Their head-to-head tiebreaker over Los Angeles could prove decisive in a pivotal Week 17 matchup.

For a wild-card berth, the Cardinals need the Commanders to lose out, the Seahawks to finish 1-2, and the Falcons to finish 2-1. While their scenario seems chaotic, Arizona’s ability to perform in clutch moments has kept them alive this season. A playoff berth would cap a remarkable late-season surge.

The San Francisco 49ers require near-impossible results and a holiday tie.

The 49ers’ playoff chances at 6-8 are hanging by a thread. San Francisco must win its final three games and pray for a complex set of results to align. That includes the LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks tying in Week 18, which is almost unheard of.

Yet, for the 49ers, miracles are the only way to save their season. If they can pull off their part and finish 9-8, the NFC West crown would be the perfect holiday gift for this struggling squad.

The Dallas Cowboys are still alive but need multiple teams to collapse.

At 6-8, the Cowboys' NFC East hopes are gone, but they still have a narrow path to a wild-card spot. Dallas must win out and hope the Commanders lose all three remaining games. Additionally, the Seahawks and Falcons must each finish 1-2, and the Cardinals can’t do better than 2-1.

While this scenario relies heavily on other teams faltering, Dallas’ recent improvements on both sides of the ball give them a small glimmer of hope. The Cowboys can’t afford any slip-ups moving forward.

The New Orleans Saints need complete anarchy in the NFC South.

At 5-9, the Saints’ only hope for the playoffs rests on winning the NFC South, but they’ll need a miracle. New Orleans must win its final three games and pray that the Buccaneers and Falcons lose all three remaining games.

This would allow the Saints to sneak into the division title despite their poor record. While the odds are slim, the NFC South’s inconsistency gives them the faintest chance of postseason life. Every snap will matter for New Orleans as they fight to stay alive.

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