Philadelphia Eagles 2014 Foles versus 2013 Foles

Oct 26, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback

(9) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Eagles 24-20. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Eagles  2014 Foles versus 2013 Foles

When discussing the Philadelphia Eagles 2014 Foles or the 2013 Foles, which do you prefer?  In the eyes of many, quarterback Nick Foles has gone from 2013’s Doctor Jeckyl to 2014’s Mister Hyde.  So if you had a choice between a 2013 version of Nick Foles, or a 2014 version of Nick Foles… which version would you choose?

If you are like 98% of the readership, you’ll jump on the belief that the 2013 Nick Foles is the clear and without hesitation leader who would be the sure fire bet to take us to post season and beyond.
Few are content with the 2014 version of hesitancy, back foot throwing interceptions at the worst possible point in the game, and rightfully so.  There is a mechanics issue that is plaguing the Eagles offense at quarterback this year.   As you watch from the stands, or from the comfort of your living room, or at a local sports bar, you have no problem seeing this for yourself.  So what is it about the Eagles that makes this a problem that just won’t go away? 

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The conclusion many have come to is that, with a more solid performance from the quarterback, this team becomes undefeated and is the toast of the NFL.   But how much of this is reality, and how much is perception?  Let’s dig a little deeper into the most objective part of the quarterback, his passing statistics.

In the NFL, certain positions are evaluated based upon representative statistics.   For a quarterback, the statistics used to assign quality to their performance is:  Completion rate, passing yards, interceptions thrown, and wins.  However, as is the way with many things in the NFL, these statistics do not capture the overall impact of a quarterback’s effect on the offense.   We all know the heartbreaking feeling of an interception thrown in the closing minutes of a game.  But what about those troublesome quarterback sacks?  

In some regards, they have a more adverse effect because the cummulative wear and tear on the QB can bring your quarterback to his worst just as the playoffs arrive.    Yes, an interception thrown deep in your own territory gives the opponents an opportunity to score.   An interception thrown deep in their territory eliminates your opportunity to score.   Both result in a more difficult game to find success.  But sacks are killers to an offensive drive as well.   Not only is the quarterback impacted by 300 pound defensive players, but they run the risk of fumbling the ball and typically lose precious yardage in the worst possible circumstances.

In April 2014, Pro Football Focus addressed this issue.  In the article, they evaluated 2013 quarterbacks and used sacks as the indicator of the quaterback position.   Interceptions, they argued, can be subject to deflections, receiver error, defenders who should catch the ball and did not.   In that 2013 season, the clear cut winner in this analysis was Denver quarterback Peyton Manning.

In 2013, Nick Foles did not play all 16 games.   In most cases, it’s very difficult for a quarterback to enter a game from the bench and start.  But thanks to the competition for a starting quarterback role, Foles was prepared to start and to lead.  By week five, quarterback Nick Foles started for injured quarterback Michael Vick.   By year end, Foles had started and finished ten of the sixteen games. 

The 2013 season of Nick Foles was a beautiful thing to observe, and the challenge with any season Foles put onto the field in 2014 would suffer incredibly in the shadows of such a bright first year to Chip Kelly’s campaign in the NFL.

But as often is the case with a brilliant opening act, this year Foles was the starter from the beginning of the year.  In short, he’s now the engine to the offense, making it go, turning the switches when things go awry.  With the high hopes of his 2013 pinpoint accuracy, and the new offensive weapons on the team, it is easy to ignore the overhaul undergone by the offensive line virtually each week and focus on the topic of “how many will they score this week?” in the lunch room.

First and foremost, the success of any quarterback will be the ability to win games.   In 2013, Foles lost two games where he started and finished:   December 15th at the Minnesota Vikings and hosting the January 4th playoff game against the New Orleans Saints.  In 2014, Foles has again lost two games:  both west coast road trips to San Francisco and to Arizona.   So, for the most important statistic of all, I’d say Nick Foles is comparative.

The next part of my thinking is of course everyone’s complaint:  accuracy and interceptions.   2013 was too good, even the worst of Nick Foles’ bashers concede that his interception rate from 2013 was incredibly accurate.    In the NFL, the average interception rate runs between 3-5% of passes thrown.   In 2013, Nick foles was better, as his interception rate ran at 15% of the national average.   That was excellent, but was unrealistic to duplicate.

In 2013, the top ten quarterbacks averaged an interception at a rate of 3.9% and were getting sacked at a rate of 5.9% (for every pass attempt).   In 2014, the top ten quarterbacks are averaging an interception at a rate of 2.86% and getting sacked at a rate of 5.36%.

Now here’s the rub.   In 2013, quarterback Nick Foles was deadly accurate, and threw passes with an interception rate of .6%.   HOWEVER , his sack rate was one of the worst, pushing 9% for every pass attempt.   In 2014, Foles interception rate has grown a significant amount to fall in at 3% (lower than the average, but slightly worse than the top ten quarterbacks for 2014).  ON THE OTHER HAND, his sack rack has plummeted, despite the patchwork offensive line, to a better than one half of the league rate, coming in at 2.3%.  That is currently an NFL BEST, despite the offensive line woes so far this season.

So lets figure the negative plays:  2013 Nick Foles in a sixteen game season throws three interception but gets killed in the pocket, hobbled for 45 sacks and losing over 275 yards.   2014 Nick foles in the same sixteen game season throws for 20 interceptions, but gets sacked a team low sixteen times in a season, losing a mere 123 yards.   Do you accept 17 interceptions for 29 sacks?

Here’s where someone jumps in with the argument:   “but an interception is worse than a sack!”.   I would agree with that in part.
The interception is worse from a tactical one game perspective.  But over the course of a season, 45 sacks pretty much hobbles our quarterback before any games are played in the post season.

Nick Foles is on track in 2014 to end up as one of the top five quarterbacks in passing yards.  Projecting his current statistics over the course of the year,  he would likely end up the year at 4700 yds, 27  touchdowns and 20 interceptions and sixteen sacks.  While these are not Peyton Manning calibre numbers,  they are good enough to project as one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks for the year.

In 2013 season, the Eagles asked quarterback Nick Foles to throw the ball 317 times.  He did so behind a very good offensive line.   And still, Foles was sack 28 times.

In 2014 so far, the Eagles have asked Foles to throw the ball 299 times.  Despite playing behind an offensive line that has yet to have the same five players in three consecutive weeks, he has done so virtually sack free.   Is this a strategy to minimize the wear and tear on the quarterback?   Didn’t we hear last year how important it was to “throw that ball away”?    With 299 pass attempts, Foles is conceivably “throwing it away” about 2 times per game.  In comparison, that same Foles in 2013 was getting sacked about three times a game.   Finally, Foles is throwing an interception about one time per game.

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So close your eyes, ignore the back feet, the lack of planting the feet, the misread and the poor timing of Eagles mistakes for just a second.   In the end, the Eagles have converted sacks into throwing the ball away as well as throwing the ball into too much traffic.

Throughout 2013, critics analyzed the fast paced offense and compared it to the quarterback who could not seem to get rid of the ball fast enough – taking unneeded sacks and risking fumbles.   In every quarterbacks training, they have a timing drill which is designed to create a “mental countdown” in a quarterback’s head, forcing them to get rid of the ball even without seeing pressure.   In doing so, the quarterback avoids blind side sacks.

While the Eagles lean much moreso on the passing game, the number of sacks per game has actually decreased.   While the offensive line has shifted it’s personnel nearly every week, the number of sacks this year has decreased dramatically.

Yes.   It’s easy to point to that interception rate and argue that our quarterback is one of the worst in the league.  But head coach Chip Kelly is not one for the “same old… same old”.   Look at the quarterbacks who have few sacks consistantly:  Drew Brees and   Peyton Manning.   Right now, Nick Foles is getting that ball out and avoiding the sack better than any starting quarterback in the NFL.

And when you look at the Philadelphia Eagles record, it’s easier to explain if you consider the sack rate as one of statistics to measure the Eagles success.   Hold onto your hats.   You can no longer look at time of possession to assess how effective a Chip Kelly offense is.   And at 5-2, there is a solid logic behind not taking a negative play, the quarterback sack, and getting rid of the ball quickly.

Over time, the mechanics will improve.   As Nick Foles becomes accustomed to the internal clock, the game will slow down for him once more.  If you have any video game background, you know that the games are set up with varying degrees of difficulty.  Foles has just upgraded and is learning the quarterback role at a much faster speed.  Frustrating for the fans?  You bet.  But don’t ignore the fact that he is NOT taking the sack, is NOT losing yards and is NOT getting beat up nearly as much as a year ago.

Yes.  During the season, 2013 Nick Foles is better statistically.  But in a post season?   I’ll take the 2014 version, the quarterback who has had to endure only 35% of the sacks from a year ago.