Should the Philadelphia Eagles Trade Back?

Apr 25, 2013; New York, NY, USA;

Lane Johnson

(Oklahoma) is introduced by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell as the number four overall pick to the Philadelphia Eagles during the 2013 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Should the Philadelphia Eagles Trade Back?

On a spring day, the last day of April through May 2nd, 2015, the NFL will conduct its annual college draft. This year, rather than be held at Radio City Music Hall, it will be held at Auditorium Theatre in Chicago, Illinois. But the venue may not be the only thing to change in 2015.

This year, the Philadelphia Eagles hold the 20th pick in the 2015 draft. And despite the talks of moving up to draft a franchise quarterback from the field of two, or moving up to select one of a handful of true talent, there is another path the team may take this year. In a game of numbers and random chance, one sure fire method to succeed is to simply increase the number of chances you have: in short, the Philadelphia Eagles could elect to trade back.

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Before we run too far down this path, three things must happen in order for trading back to happen in any draft.
I. The team with the pick must find less value at that position than the actual value of the pick.
II. Another team must find a player available at that position and value them more than the value of the pick.
III. The team seeking to trade to that spot must offer adequate compensation to persuade the Eagles to make the pick.

So let’s look at each component in detail

I. The team with the pick must find less value at that position than the actual value of the pick.

Simple enough. If the Eagles sit at the 20th pick but nobody remains with a first round talent, then they must consider other options. It happens. Consider the 2014 NFL draft where the Eagles did not have anyone valued at the 22nd pick. When quarterback Johnny Manziel fell to the Eagles slot, a number of teams called. But nothing happens if the Eagles considered Manziel worth the 22nd pick. That’s the first step. Unfortunately, despite the needs of the Eagles, there are some drafts which simply do not have quality talent beyond the earliest picks. This year may be shallow of elite talent – certainly in some critical positions such as quarterback.

When that happens, a team like the Eagles can find themselves in an awkward spot. They pick too late to get true first round talent. But, they pick too early to consider players who they rate into the second round. So why not just pick a player? Well, as we know, that sometimes happens. Many believe the Eagles wanted to trade back again but ran out of trading partners, and did not feel that Smith would last until their second round selection. So they picked and hoped. Sometimes it doesn’t work out, but sometimes it does.

However, trading back has it’s own perils. By moving later into the draft, other teams now have access to talent and can continue to loot the draft boards. That very reason is why many drafts have “a run on xxx” position. Many teams who rate players of a certain position must consider the relative talent available. If an NFL team rates three offensive tackles as “starting calibre” and two of those prospects are drafted earlier, then they have few alternatives but to draft the third candidate, for fear of not addressing a needed position.

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II. Another team must find a player available at that position and value them more than the value of the pick.

This is another common sense component that seems to be lost when fans begin to consider draft trades. It’s not enough that one team has interest in trading back. There must be another team equally interested in moving up. If the draft simply “runs out of talent” at a certain point, then teams who select in that range simply have the bad luck of the draw. Similarly, if a team is picking and elite talent falls to them, it is not a skillful general manager alone who can decide which player to select.

Like many economic equations, it’s a function of supply versus demand. Talented players end up on teams who value their skill sets. If a team is picking at a position with a player they have little interest in, another team will trade into that spot.

When the Saint Louis Rams followed the Indianapolis Colts, many knew they had already drafted their starting quarterback in Sam Bradford and had little interest in adding competition to the team at that position. But the draft that year had two quarterbacks whose talents caught the eyes of NFL scouts and general managers. It was that combination of highly regarded draft talent on top of a team with no interest at adding a quarterback that enabled the blockbuster trade to the Washington Redskins.

III. The team seeking to trade to that spot must offer adequate compensation to persuade the Eagles to make the pick.

NFL teams compete throughout the season. It’s small wonder that any trades happen, particularly when it comes to the NFL draft. The reason that trades happen at all is many believe they are smarter than the others. Or, at a minimum, they believe they see more value in what they receive from their their trading partner versus what they give up in return. When you read the scenarios of potential trades this draft, ask yourself if you were either team – Would You Make That Trade? If your answer is even “I don’t know”, you can bet it won’t happen. No team’s general manager wants to be responsible for making competing teams better.

There is so much hype built into the NFL draft – many believe that “one player” can turn an average team into a super bowl contender. While there is certainly truth to building a championship team through the draft, it’s not an overnight process. Teams that succeed are constantly ensuring that they are one or two steps ahead of roster shortages by bringing talent from the draft to replenish team depth.

It’s only when a team suffers injury, or salary cap constraints, where a team is in a difficult position of trying to fill the void via the draft. When that happens, they will typically offer enough compensation as to guarantee the trade happens.

Trade Value

So what would the Eagles likely see if they did move back? Well, you can look up the NFL value chart and despite some translational differences, you will find that the Eagles could be looking at an early 2nd and 3rd round picks (and possibly more if too far into those rounds). Why would the Eagles even consider that?

Well the team has specific needs: defensive backs, offensive line depth, linebackers. If the NFL draft has ten elite players, then a talent level drops until the middle of the third round, the Eagles would be choosing in the first and second rounds from a talent level that averages at round 2-3. If they manage to trade back and acquire that 2nd, 3rd, and let’s say 5th picks, they convert 1 pick into two among the same talent pool, and add an additional pick on day three.

Why is that important? Well, if the talent level is consistent, it gives the Eagles a built in “mulligan”. They can miss on one draft pick and still be fine if the hit on the second pick. In the Eagles history, they have not had noteworthy success at that first pick. This simply gives them more chances to find players who can make significant contribution.

Each year, there is always a set of players who are linked to the Philadelphia Eagles despite the fact that drafting them to the Eagles hovers at nearly impossible. But not much is said about the other side of the coin, which could actually make much more sense this year.

If the draft has little first round talent, look for several late round teams to entertain trading back. Sometimes the key to advancing is simply knowing when to conduct a well timed retreat.

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