Fantasy Football: Three up, three down for Week 1
By Matt Giraldi
I would like to begin this fantasy football article with my condolences to those that are going up against the Rob Gronkowski owner this week. But don’t worry, because as we all learned with Michael Vick in 2010, a fantasy football match-up is not over until the final seconds tick off the clock. It’s important now to make sure you have plenty of upside this weekend if you’re facing an early deficit. And if you’re already rostering Gronk, don’t over-commit to the low-floor fantasy players such as Devin Funchess this weekend.
Each and every Friday, I will take a long look at three players that will be worth the risk to start (with upside for elongated future success). I will also look at the three players that are generating substantial buzz for the week ahead, yet are likely to underwhelm when it counts.
Three Up
Keenan Lewis is a name that is unfortunately infamous with Philadelphia Eagles fans. Larry Fitzgerald might be more infamous. But this Sunday, Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals will take on a defense that could be grated (intentionally not graded) as Swiss cheese. Jairus Byrd (sensing a trend?) will also miss the season opener for the New Orleans Saints. With the lack of able bodies in the Saints secondary, expect Fitzgerald to have his way this week. Honorable mention goes to both Carson Palmer and John Brown as well.
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Stevie Johnson
Stevie Johnson has never excelled in the NFL. Now that he’s a member of the San Diego Chargers, Johnson is getting notable publicity as a sleeper candidate. In Week 1 the Chargers take on the Detroit Lions, a game that has the potential to be high scoring and lacking defensively.
Perhaps more importantly is the lack of availability from some of the biggest playmakers in the San Diego offense. Antonio Gates is serving a suspension and Ladarius Green is under a league-mandated concussion protocol. Without the tight ends, expect Phillip Rivers to heavily pepper both Johnson and Keenan Allen. As Evan Silva points out, the match-up heavily favors Johnson.
Nelson Agholor
The Eagles rookie has quickly disappeared among the fantasy football community. After his debut against the Indianapolis Colts, Agholor was viewed as a rookie of the year candidate. While that talk has tapered off, the expectations for the Philadelphia Eagles remains at a fever pitch. On Monday night, Agholor figures to get an opportunity to enter the public limelight again.
With coverage likely to focus heavily on Jordan Matthews, Agholor will have the opportunity to do what he does best: run after the catch. Last season the Falcons allowed 2,151 yards after the catch, 27th most in the NFL. Go with the biased pick this week and target the Eagles offense. In daily fantasy leagues, it just might be contrarian enough to embolden your investment.
Three Down
It may seem contrary to list a running back that is on a team heavily favored Week 1. However, the Washington Redskins were one of the best defenses against the run last season. Additionally, it’s important to remember that road teams in the first week aren’t assured of anything, particularly a Miami Dolphins team that has struggled to perform up to expectations. I like Miller to net 100 all-purpose yards on Sunday, but I think the end zone might be a coin-flip. It’s likely difficult to envision a situation where someone drafted Miller and has the ability to bench him, but just note that the fantasy football output might be underwhelming.
Regardless of Kam Chancellor‘s availability, the Seattle defense is not be taken lightly. While Quick is a great candidate to break out this season, the likelihood of him having significant success against the Seahawks is highly unlikely (look at his career numbers against Seattle). Don’t overthink decisions like this. Do not start Brian Quick this week.
So I get free time to write for a Philadelphia Eagles Fansided website and I’m not going to adamantly go against the quarterback facing them? A crazy notion indeed. But fandom aside, this does not solely rely on fantasy football bias. Part of my disbelief in Ryan stems from his inability to stay clean in the pocket. This Eagles defense can bring immense pressure from the front seven, and the Falcons showed last year that numerous parts of the offensive line worked as turnstyles in their down time.
While the high over/under indicates this game will be a shoot-out, I think the Eagles defense ultimately becomes the deciding factor in this game. Julio Jones is an amazing specimen, but someone else will have to step up. With Roddy White entering his 11th season and Leonard Hankerson attempting to stay healthy, game-planning against the Falcons doesn’t appear to be as complicated as it was just three seasons ago. I fully expect the Eagles to give Matt Ryan fits all night and limit his progressions. Multiple turnovers could be in store for the quarterback formerly known as, “Matty Ice.”
Next: Eagles Week One Fantasy Outlook
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