Eagles' Eye Scouting Report: Paxton Lynch

The Philadelphia Eagles organization is idling at a major crossroads: Retain Sam Bradford at a costly price, or delve deep into the unknown and invest in a younger, more cost effective option through the draft. Should the Eagles front office opt to venture the latter route, Memphis Tigers quarterback Paxton Lynch may very well be the most enticing option of this year’s crop. A dynamic and athletic passer with a tantalizing size/speed combination, Lynch’s skill-set will be an asset to whatever NFL team turns in a card adorning his name.

Lynch’s Accomplishments

After red-shirting his freshman year at Memphis, Lynch went on to start the following 3 seasons, steadily building his resume for NFL teams. In his second season as starter, Lynch compiled a 3,031 22/9 line, before following his sophomore performance up with an even stronger campaign, passing for 3,778 yards and 28 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions in 2015. Lynch’s collegiate encore was in stark contrast to his 1st season, in which he managed just 2,000 yards and a 9/10 TD-INT ratio (and a 3-9 record to boot). The improvement implied by the sharp statistical progression is corroborated by the subsequent jump in Lynch’s record; leaping from 3-9 to a combined 19-6 with a 1-1 bowl game record in the following 2 seasons.

First Impressions

The initial impressions of Lynch as both an NFL prospect and a collegiate passer paint a pretty compelling picture. Lynch is an imposing figure standing at roughly 6’6″ and 235 pounds, yet the most intriguing part is that Lynch is an excellent athlete with good speed and quickness despite his size. These traits allow him to routinely escape the pocket and extend plays, while posing a running threat on read option plays. Lynch’s arm strength is easily top-tier at both the collegiate and NFL levels, as he can flick his wrist and sail the ball 50+ yards with relative ease. Although Lynch boasts a big-time arm, his accuracy doesn’t suffer for it, as he is generally accurate and typically locates his passes for optimal YAC. From a philosophical standpoint, I liked that I saw Lynch react well in a number of contrasting adversarial circumstances. Winning in a shootout (BGSU), competing against and besting a talented athletic defense (Ole Miss), or hanging tough and playing deceptively well despite being less than full strength (Temple).

Strengths

As previously mentioned, Lynch is a flat out physical specimen with high-level athletic traits. There isn’t a throw that Lynch can’t make, whether it be a 65-yard heave, a high-velocity tight-window throw on the run, or a boundary throw from the opposite hash. The capability of throwing from awkward platforms also isn’t out of the reach of Lynch, as he is able to complete passes falling away from his target that other prospects simply cannot. To be clear, Lynch doesn’t have an Aaron Rodgers quality arm, but he would very much be in the top-tier of NFL quarterbacks in terms of arm strength. Think Joe Flacco–Ben Roethlisberger territory. In addition, although he sometimes fights it, Lynch does have a quick release.

I’ve pegged Lynch as an athletic specimen, so I’d like to elaborate a bit on what exactly that entails. Not only does he reap the obvious benefits of being what is considered an “athletic” QB (speed, and to a lesser degree, agility), Lynch’s body control is an asset as well. On awkward passes and rollouts, Lynch is able to manipulate his feet and rotate his hips from awkward angles to compensate for instability on tough throws; many QBs have trouble rolling to their non-arm side and throwing, but Lynch has little issue. He’s not Marcus Mariota rolling to his left, but he’s able to effectively square his hips/shoulders and manipulate his release, which is no simple feat. Additionally, he’s able to maneuver the pocket and evade rushers, as well as slip through holes and separate from defenders on the edge on both scrambles and the read option. There has been a trend towards athletic, dual-threat passers in recent years, and Lynch epitomizes this movement.

In terms of decision making and protecting the football, Lynch has done an excellent job since taking over for the Tigers in 2013. In his 3 years at quarterback, he has tossed a mere 23 interceptions, four of which came in 2015. This propensity for protecting the football is apparent in watching Lynch play, as he seldom throws what might be considered an interceptable pass, and although he has lapses in judgement at times, he isn’t afraid to tuck the football and run, toss the ball out of bounds (though I’d prefer to see this more), or otherwise keep it out of harm’s way. Now, that isn’t to say that Lynch is risk averse by any stretch, because he isn’t. Lynch isn’t a high-stakes gun-slinger, but he’s more than willing to toss the ball around the yard.

I touched on Lynch’s accuracy in my initial impressions, but that’s another aspect of his repertoire that I found to be underrated, albeit still in need of polish. While Lynch is far from a Brees-ian in terms of accuracy, he doesn’t fall into the scatter-shot category that many of the big-armed passers do. While there aren’t a lot of designed “pro throws” in the Memphis Tigers offense, Lynch manages to successfully test tight-windows with consistency, as well as make the occasional anticipatory throw. Lynch has had success making bucket throws down the field, and has shown touch and accuracy in the short and intermediate area on both screens and mid-range throws. That is to say, although Lynch has the reputation as a hard-thrower, he has good arm talent, demonstrating the ability to use touch and finesse, as opposed to rifling every throw ala Colin Kaepernick.

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Weaknesses

Although I like Lynch quite a bit, it’s fairly easy to poke holes in his game, particularly in relation to how it might translate to the NFL. For one, his mechanics are sloppy and will need a lot of touching up before he can be consistently effective at the next level. Lynch doesn’t have a natural feel for his arm slot like other high-level prospects do, and that causes him to do some funky things with his delivery. Lynch is at best when he doesn’t have time to think and has to get the ball out quickly, because when he has time cock and load, he does some odd things manipulating the football with his throwing hand; pronating and supinating his hand and wrist as he goes throw his negative-positive motion. This quirk causes the ball to come out awkwardly at times, as the nose of the football moves all over the place during his delivery, and he wraps the ball a bit. It also contributes to ebbs and flows in velocity and accuracy, and why some argue his velocity can be touch and go. Lynch’s arm circle is also less than ideal in terms of consistency, as he has a habit of pulling the ball through his navel and elongating his motion when he attempts to add velocity. This flaw can adversely affect timing and release, thus inhibiting a passer’s ability to effectively function within the offense. This isn’t a fatal flaw considering that it’s not a constant issue, however, a large part of being a successful passer is having easily repeatable mechanics, and in having so much excess movement, mechanics are incredibly difficult to repeat again and again.

Lynch’s footwork can also be less than ideal, and because he operates almost exclusively out of the shotgun, he’ll have to prove to NFL teams that he can be a proficient drop-back passer. Drop-backs aside, Lynch can make a habit out of sloppily shuffling his feet in the direction of his throws, leading to a lack of front side contain, and a flawed release. Sometimes he closes himself off, sometimes he leaves himself open, but this deficiency is masked at the college level because of his arm talent; it won’t be as thoroughly masked in the NFL. Another negative aspect of Lynch’s footwork that occasionally rears its head is the tendency to over stride; this habit contributes to the length of Lynch’s delivery, negatively impacts his release point, and leads to poor weight distribution (usually a velocity killer).

I certainly wouldn’t call Lynch’s pocket presence a weakness, however, it’s not particularly strong. Lynch occasionally drops his eyes in the face of the rush, and is quick to abandon the pocket at times, as opposed to hanging tough and stepping up, or making a snap read and firing off the football. This is being a little nit-picky, but all great quarterbacks have a fairly innate feel for the pocket and how to maneuver, and I’m not sure that Lynch has the capability.

Although I despise going down the rabbit hole, so to speak, it is worth noting that Lynch does not play in an NFL offense. The volume of screens and high-percentage throws makes the Tigers offense simplistic and Lynch’s projection to the NFL much harder. Lynch’s ability to read a defense will be called into question as he wasn’t asked to go through complex progressions at Memphis, although he does make pre-snap reads, so there isn’t no basis for growth. Much of his eval will be done during the interview process, so it’ll be difficult to ascertain his true proficiency for the purpose of this article, so for now it’s a red flag (albeit perhaps unfairly so). Yet, it simply can’t be ignored, particularly when discomfort and lack of rhythm are the catalysts for so many of Lynch’s issues.

Again, Lynch is far and away at his best when he doesn’t have to think and can just pull the trigger. This is made especially easy for him given the simplicity of the offense in which he functions. Now, if he is slid into a pro style system where he is forced to call protections, audibles, go through more complex progressions (particularly when his hands tend to drop as he goes through progressions), and take on an intricate and voluminous playbook, it’s safe to assume his level of comfort will greatly diminish. Now, this can be said of literally any prospect, especially when so many come from a spread system nowadays, however, with Lynch, his mechanical breakdowns occur, more so than others, with even small lapses in rhythm. Considering that there are so many observable lapses in mechanics at Memphis despite his general mastery of the system, it’s safe to assume the issue will magnify greatly at the NFL level. The silver lining is, he really doesn’t have any fatal flaws, but the number of small issues that periodically crop up add up quickly, and accumulate to create his inconsistencies. For Lynch, good coaching will be absolutely essential, and will likely make or break his pro career.

Pro-Comparison/Bottom Line

Paxton Lynch compares favorably to a mobile, athletically gifted Joe Flacco.

While Lynch doesn’t come without his warts, I feel as though the good outweighs the bad, and he should be considered a top 10-12 pick, which is obviously well within the Eagles range (although demand could push him higher). At the end of the day, he’s a very talented, physically gifted spread-passer who will likely need time to develop into an effective NFL quarterback. With the regime change, I have a much looser grasp of what Doug Pederson and his staff will look for in a prospect, but, in my opinion, Lynch has the most system versatile traits of any quarterback in the class. He’ll need to sit for a while before he’s comfortable and refined enough to perform on a consistent basis, but given a patient and capable coaching staff, Lynch could be very successful.

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Eagles’ Eye Scouting Report: Paxton Lynch

By Pat Roach | Jan 24, 2016

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