Eagles: Is Drafting a Running Back in the First Round Worth It?

The Philadelphia Eagles have a big decision to make when the eighth pick in the 2016 draft comes.

I want to preface this article with this: Ezekiel Elliot could be an absolute beast, and I love his style. However, it’s important to note the well-documented fact that drafting a running back in the first round usually doesn’t lead to a Super Bowl. In this piece, I will look at all of the running backs drafted in the first round in the last 10 years and look at their success over their career, especially on the team that actually drafted them. I’ll let the data do the talking, and you can make assumptions from here:

2015 Draft

Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams (10th overall)
1 season: 1,106 rushing yards, 10 TDs

Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers (15th overall)
1 season: 641 rushing yards, 0 TDs

Analysis: Obviously these guys are still up for debate, but if you’re only looking at their first year, Gurley is a beast and Gordon is a bust. However, much of Gordon’s failures were due to a terrible offensive line and injury problems. Either way, that’s something to consider when committing a first round selection to a running back.

2014 Draft

None

Analysis: No surprise that there wasn’t an RB taken in the first round, as it wasn’t a great group of players at the position. The second round featured Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde, and based on two seasons, Sankey and Hyde have been pretty bad. The third round RBs were Charles Sims, Tre Mason, Terrance West, Jerrick McKinnon and Dri Archer, another group of terrible backs, but guys like Devonta Freeman and James White were picked in the fourth round, both of whom had very productive seasons in their own way last year.

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2013 Draft

None

Analysis: This draft class featured some hits (Giovani Bernard and Le’Veon Bell) and some misses (Montee Ball and Christine Michael), but again, it shows that even some starter-quality guys can be found outside of the first round, especially a guy like Bell, who, when healthy, is a top RB in the league.

2012 Draft

Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns (3rd overall)
3 seasons: 2,032 rushing yards, 17 TDs
Average: 677 rushing yards, 5.7 TDs

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31st overall)
4 seasons: 3,806 rushing yards, 20 TDs
Average: 952 rushing yards, 4 TDs

David Wilson, New York Giants (32nd overall)
2 seasons: 504 rushing yards, 5 TDs
Average: 252 rushing yards, 2.5 TDs

Analysis: The careers for Richardson and Wilson are already over, so that should say enough right there. Richardson dropped off incredibly after his rookie year and Wilson couldn’t come back from a bunch of serious neck injuries. Martin had a revival season last year, but he was picked all the way at 31st overall, so it’s not like he was a top 10 pick. Martin is one of the only success stories for RBs picked in the first round in the last five years.

2011 Draft

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (28th overall)
5 seasons: 3,195 rushing yards, 26 TDs
Average: 639 rushing yards, 5.2 TDs

Analysis: It took Ingram four years to have a good season, and even last year he was just barely above average. Overall, his career is below that of an average starter, not close to the worth of what a first round pick should be.

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Eagles

2010 Draft

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills (9th overall)
6 seasons: 3,433 rushing yards, 12 TDs
Average: 572 rushing yards, 2 TDs

Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (12th overall)
6 seasons: 4,600 rushing yards, 29 TDs
Average: 767 rushing yards, 4.8 TDs

Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions (30th overall)
2 seasons: 945 rushing yards, 6 TDs
Average: 473 rushing yards, 3 TDs

Analysis: Spiller had a couple good seasons for the Bills but has already fallen off in terms of production and was a backup in New Orleans last year to Ingram, another former first round pick. Mathews, as you all should know, is gone from San Diego. He has had a lot of injury problems, but has actually been better than average when he plays. Best seemed to haveÂ more concussions than touchdowns and was out of the NFL in two years, another bad pick by the Lions.

2009 Draft

Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos (12th overall)
6 seasons: 3,616 rushing yards, 27 TDs
Average: 603 rushing yards, 4.5 TDs

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts (27th overall)
7 seasons: 2,829 rushing yards, 18 TDs
Average: 404 rushing yards, 2.6 TDs

Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals (31st overall)
4 seasons: 2,471 rushing yards, 24 TDs
Average: 618 rushing yards, 6 TDs

Analysis: None of these guys were very good, but Moreno and Wells each at least had a 1,000-yard season. Brown has been terrible his whole career, which is why it’s surprising that he’s lasted longer than the other two. It’s likely mostly due to the fact that he’s had the fewest injuries, but even he has had trouble staying on the field. None of these guys were worth a first round pick.

2008 Draft

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders (4th overall)
8 seasons: 5,336 rushing yards, 28 TDs
Average: 667 rushing yards, 3.5 TDs

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (13th overall)
8 seasons: 5,814 rushing yards, 36 TDs
Average: 727 rushing yards, 4.5 TDs

Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys (22nd overall)
6 seasons: 2,912 rushing yards, 11 TDs
Average: 485 rushing yards, 1.8 TDs

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers (23rd overall)
6 seasons: 4,236 rushing yards, 37 TDs
Average: 706 rushing yards, 6.2 TDs

Chris Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (24th overall)
8 seasons: 9,442 rushing yards, 54 TDs
Average: 1,180 rushing yards, 6.8 TDs

Analysis: A surprisingly large first round RB class featured a mixed bag of results. Stewart’s and Johnson’s careers looked to be over, but they had very productive 2015 seasons. Mendenhall was OK, but had a short career due to injuries. Jones was bad for most of his career. McFadden occasionally had a good year, but he mostly was an inefficient and slow running back whose 2015 “success” should mostly be credited to his legendary offensive line.

2007 Draft

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (7th overall)
9 seasons: 11,675 rushing yards, 97 TDs
Average: 1,297 rushing yards, 10.8 TDs

Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills (12th overall)
9 seasons: 9,112 rushing yards, 74 TDs
Average: 1,012 rushing yards, 8.2 TDs

Analysis: Critics of the “you shouldn’t draft an RB in the first round” mantra will point to this draft as the outlier. Peterson and Lynch both have had tremendous careers, and Peterson is still going. Lynch even got a Super Bowl ring, but it wasn’t with the Bills, the team who drafted him, which is worth noting.

2006 Draft

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints (2nd overall)
10Â seasons: 5,493 rushing yards, 35 TDs
Average: 549 rushing yards, 3.5 TDs

Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots (21st overall)
5 seasons: 2,504 rushing yards, 21 TDs
Average: 500 rushing yards, 4.2 TDs

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (27th overall)
10 seasons: 7,753 rushing yards, 57 TDs
Average: 775 rushing yards, 5.7 TDs

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts (30th overall)
6 seasons: 4,453 rushing yards, 39 TDs
Average: 742 rushing yards, 6.5 TDs

Analysis: Addai also won a Super Bowl, and this time it was actually with the team that drafted him, but overall he was just barely above average. Bush and Maroney were mostly busts for being first round picks. Williams was the most successful and is still playing now. He was one of the league’s top RBs as a fill-in guy for Bell in Pittsburgh this past year.

However, even though it was 11 years ago, let’s not forget the 2005 draft that featured three running backs in the top five picks (Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams). Brown battled injuries his entire career and could never stay healthy, finishing his final four seasons with fewer than 250 rushing yards. Benson was successful for a three-year stint on the Bengals, but he was a disaster for the Bears, the team that drafted him. Williams had a great rookie year, but then also battled injuries for the rest of his career, finishing his career with only 3.8 yards per carry.

As you can see, no piece of history is going to perfectly predict the future at the running back position. You could end up with an Adrian Peterson or a Chris Johnson, or you get unlucky and draft a Donald Brown or David Wilson. You just never know.

I truly think Elliot could be a great player, but the Eagles could probably still find a really good running back in a later round and focus on a different position in the first round. They still have too many holes to fill, and in my opinion, getting a stud at offensive line, linebacker or cornerback would be a more useful first round pick than a running back.

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