Passing Thoughts

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Actor /Humorist/Football enthusiast Nick Bakay is famous for uttering these words: “The numbers never lie.” While I am certain Nick isn’t the first to speak these four words, he is only person I can recall off the top of my head. In light of Donovan McNabb’s recent benching, there has been a plethora of heated chatter in football circles as to whether it’s McNabb’s fault for the failures in Philly, or Head Coach Andy Reid’s pass-first offensive philosophy. It’s hardly a secret that Reid believes explosive plays through the air are a recipe for success and pivotal to capturing Championships. Is he correct? Is a pass-happy mentality appropriate in today’s NFL? Well, the only way I know to solve this conundrum is to delve inside the numbers. To accomplish this task I am going to crack open the NFL history books and examine some of the more superior pass offenses of the last decade. Does pass-first equal Championship? Or is a more balanced approach the way to go? We shall see. (Note: numbers in () = league rank)

Total offense: 442.2 ypg (#1)

Passing offense: 327.0 ypg (#1)

Rushing offense: 115.2 ypg (#17)

Record: 10-7, Lost in Wildcard round of playoffs

Total offense: 404.7 ypg (#2)

Passing offense: 288.9 ypg (#1)

Rushing offense: 115.8 ypg (#15)

Record: 13-5, Lost in Divisional round of playoffs

Total offense: 351.1 ypg (#9)

Passing offense: 248.7 ypg (#7)

Rushing offense: 102.4 ypg (#24)

Record: 15-4, Lost Super Bowl

Total offense: 411.2 ypg (#1)

Passing offense: 295.7 ypg (#1)

Rushing offense: 115.6 ypg (#13)

Record: 18-1, Lost Super Bowl

Total offense: 379.4 ypg (#3)

Passing offense: 269.2 ypg (#2)

Rushing offense: 110.1 ypg (#18)

Record: 16-4, Won Super Bowl

Three of the above teams made it to the Super Bowl. The 2006 Colts came away winners. The 2004 Eagles and 2007 Patriots reached the Big Game, only to lose. The common denominator among all these offenses is the low rushing rank. The 2007 Patriots had the highest ranked running attack at #13. The lowest ranked rush offense belonged to Andy Reid’s 2004 Eagles who were 24^th in the league. All the teams scored numerous points and passed for a boatload of yards but only the 2006 Colts can call themselves World Champions.

A pass-first philosophy is a proven method to win games, but it doesn’t usually lead to Super Bowl titles. That being said, is a more balanced offensive attack the key to winning Championships? To find out, let’s look at two Super Bowl Champions known for their prolific offenses and see if they subscribed to the balanced theory.

Total offense: 378.8 ypg (#2)

Passing offense: 260.2 ypg (#4)

Rushing offense: 118.6 ypg (#6)

Record: 16-3, Won Super Bowl

Total offense: 400.8 ypg (#1)

Passing offense: 272.1 ypg (#1)

Rushing offense: 128.7 ypg (#5)

Record: 16-3, Won Super Bowl

Dominant. Explosive. Balanced. Super Bowl Champions. The ‘94 49ers ran a west coast offense. The ’99 Rams ran an Air Coryell offense. Each team utilized a completely different design and approach but neither neglected the importance of a solid running game. Steve Young and Kurt Warner received all the glory but without Ricky Watters and Marshall Faulk these two great teams might not have won Super Bowl titles.

So what to make of all this extrapolation? Well, the numbers seem to back up the assertion that a more balanced offensive philosophy increases a team’s chances of winning a Super Bowl. To be fair, all variables haven’t been accounted for, but based on these statistics Andy Reid’s pass-first style is unlikely to result in a Lombardi Trophy. And as my good buddy Nick Bakay always says, “The numbers never lie.”